Some day, the NBA regular season will really matter to all fans. Sure, as a fan of one of the NBA’s juggernauts you could argue that it matters right now. But lose your superiority complex for a moment and take out games featuring the Lakers, Heat, Bulls, Magic, Celtics and Spurs playing against each other. Then ignore the NBA marketing ploy that those games and games between lesser teams and these teams actually have some impact on the playoffs. Now admit to yourself that all those teams were probably playing at 80% until the last 5 minutes of the game and holding out any key player with as much as a hang nail to save them for the real season (see: playoffs).
Ah yes, the playoffs. The nearly three month soiree that seems to never quite end but never quite garner your interest until it is already over (much like the last minute of any regular season NBA game). And why should you be interested? Of the 16 NBA teams make the postseason each year, the majority of the teams in the field historically have little shot of winning. Since 1980 only 8 teams have won the NBA Finals. The Lakers lead the way with a staggering 9 titles in 30 years, while the Jordan Era Bulls have 6, and the Spurs and Celtics have 4 each. The Pistons have three but only one in the last 20 years, while the Rockets reeled off two in a row in 93-94’. The Heat and 76ers only have one each.
By contrast, the NFL has seen 16 Super Bowl winners in the same time frame. The NHL has had 14 winners, and MLB has had a staggering 20 winners in 30 years. The conclusion is clear – the NBA simply does not display parity at nearly the same level as other sports. The more concerning issue is the likelihood that this trend won't change any time soon. The NBA has a problem.
The culprit of this problem you ask? Cheap owners? Selfish players? The slam dunk? Nope, nope, and nope. The real culprit is “The Uber Team”: a team of NBA icons brought together via free agency or trade. Why you ask? Because “The Uber Team” is robbing the league of its parity and kidnapping its small market teams.
While talking heads and NBA officials claim that this is good for the league due to increased attendance, higher T.V ratings, and more marquee games, it is actually further advancing it into a state of utter predictability. While there is no doubt that Lebron James teaming up with Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade in Miami will increase interest in Miami, or that Carmelo Anthony pouting his way onto the Knicks to team up with Amar’e Stoudemire will help in New York, the cities these players demanded or chose to leave are left with major holes to fill. These three cities, Denver, Toronto, and Cleveland, also happen to be three perennial have-not’s and their fans will have to wait years for the next superstar to come along via draft to even dream of an NBA Championship.
Compounding the problem is that most teams are not even in the position to have a superstar to lose in the first place due to management's poor drafting, giving out bad contracts that tie up money, or the refusal to sign big name players. When one of these teams happens to finally grab a star, they have an increasingly small window in which to win. Fewer stars are staying with their original team and trying to win with a team built around them. Instead, they are leaving via free agency, demanding trades, and plotting with other stars to form super teams as an easy way to the top.
In fact, right now if I asked you who would win the NBA Finals this year and next, you would probably give me a list of around 6 teams. You would probably name the Celtics, Lakers, Spurs, Bulls, Heat, and Knicks (notice how many of the front runners have won titles winners since 1980). Of those favorites, only the Spurs and Bulls have become legitimate contenders without major trades or free agent signings with league icons joining their rosters. In a league where upsets clearly don’t happen in the pinnacle of the playoffs, the scales are tipped steeply against the other 22 teams in the league. For a team like the Milwaukee Bucks or Minnesota Timberwolves, fans are more likely to see their team contracted or moved than win a championship in their lifetimes. Something is clearly very broken.
But instead of trying to fix the problem, the NBA instead focuses their coverage on the perennial powers or the newly formed “Uber Teams”, deflecting attention from teams and cities that desperately need it. This has led to further putrification of a regular season and playoffs that are already too long and too drawn out (the 2010 NBA season lasted a staggering 170 days with the playoffs adding an additional 70 days). It seems silly to take 240 days of the year for something than can easily be predicted by the trading deadline (4 months before the NBA Finals).
The solution to the problem facing the NBA will eventually come in the form of contraction, abolishing guaranteed money in contracts, shortening of the playoffs, regular season, or more likely, a lockout. But these options would be merely serve as band aids for a league that has been broken for longer than most people realize.
The NFL has often coined the phrase “Any Given Sunday” to promote the idea that every team has a chance to win. Fans from downtrodden teams can always wait till next week or next year for a winner. They can always say to themselves that someday they will be able to see their team win and gloat like a true champion. Perhaps the NBA can use the following moniker to replace their much mocked “Where Amazing Happens” campaign. It would read, “The NBA: A Title for Your Team Any Given Some Day”.
But the problem for the majority of teams and fans in the NBA, is that under the current system, some day will never come.
I think we can all see what you're really getting at... BUT LISTEN, JUST BECAUSE SHARIF ABDUR-RAHIM PLAYED IN VANCOUVER DOESN'T MEAN HIS CAREER DIDN'T MATTER! LEAVE SHARIF ALONE, YOU BASTARD!!!
ReplyDeleteHere's what I like about your post. It seems like there are four effects of uber teams:
ReplyDelete1. big gain for the uber-teams themselves and their markets
2. big loss for the pillaged teams and their markets
3. loss for other fans that just like Any Given Sunday parity
4. gain for fans that like rooting for consistent blockbuster rivalries
While the NBA thinks that #1 and #4 are much more important (and they undoubtedly are be in the short-run) you are forecasting what happens if they keep thinking about today by neglecting #2-3.
But how much of the arbitrage opportunity that big-market NBA teams have (i.e. the ability to build an uber-team) is the fault of the NBA structure and how much of it is just natural because there are so many fewer moving pieces to align in basketball than football and baseball?
Couple of things, Sems. First, maybe not this year, but I like Oklahoma City as a contender (albeit not a in a primary spot, like the C's, Lakers, Spurs; more like NYK)
ReplyDeleteAlso, how does David Stern's globalization vision play into this? Instead of contracting teams, Stern wants to add teams in Europe (with London as a potential first spot, I think. I don't see why. There aren't even any English players in the league. I think that Scal is probably the closest thing that there is...)
Will we see a division created in Europe?
Back to the Topic: The issue that you are talking about is hardly a new issue. In the first 13 years of the league, there were 7 different title winners. Percentage-wise, this is similar to your NHL, NFL, MLB stat. That is the beginning of when the Celtics won 8 strait. 8 teams won in the next 13 years, although the Celtics won four during that span (the Lakers won a few as well). After that, we are in 1980, and as we all know... 8 in 31 years. All in all, and this was just a quick count, I think that in the leagues history, beginning in 1946-7, 14 teams have won the NBA title (this is considering that moved locations as just one team-- eg. Minneapolis and LA Lakers count as the same team). 14 Teams! That is ridiculous!
Now, I am a huge NBA fan, but there have always been "Uber Teams." Red Auerbach manipulated more drafts and trades than any coach/GM/president of BB opps could ever dream. The only difference now is the way in which the teams are created... players are creating their own teams. I think that this has disaster written all over it. There is a reason why players don't coach-- it doesn't work. Players shouldn't play GM. Miami's moves weren't about winning; they were about publicity & money. Winning was assumed. The players played GM, so the the combined salaries of 6 players who are under contract for the next three years will put the Heat over the cap- assuming the salary cap stays the same in the new CBA!
The NBA has always been a league with just a few teams stacked with talent. As a sport with just five players on the court at a time, each player, if they are the RIGHT player, counts so much more than in the other major sports. When you have Magic Johnson running the point, or MJ or Larry leading you in crunch time, that counts for a lot. But when the players aren't primarily concerned about winning, they won't. Magic Johnson said that he and Larry would never have joined the same team-- because they wanted to beat each other. Bosh, Wade, and LeBron, and also Anthony and Stodamire, they don't want to put in the effort to beat each other... it's an "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em attitude." The only hope for NBA fans is for players like Durant, Rose, and Griffin to win early and stay with their franchises.