Patriots vs Ravens
1. Keep the QBs clean
The whole world knows by now that the recipe to beating the Patriots and Tom Brady is to hit him. The Texans and J.J Watt talked all last week about how they almost got to him the first time they played. Turns out, you don't get sacks or turnovers for almost hitting someone. The Texans didn't get to Brady last week and he shredded them for 41 points. While the Ravens don't have a pass rushing threat like J.J Watt, they do have Paul Kruger, a relatively well kept secret who has 10 sacks in his last 10 games. He will be matched up on the outside with Sebastian Vollmer, and his ability to get to Brady and force the Patriots to keep a TE into help will be a key factor into whether or not the Ravens blitz packages with Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis are able to get through. The Patriots want to expose the Raven linebackers inability to cover TE's and RB's but if Brady is under constant pressure the Ravens will make this impossible.
On the other side, the Patriots have lacked a sustained pass rush the last three weeks, and with Chandler Jones nursing an ankle injury, the onus will be on Rob Ninkovich to pressure Joe Flacco and prevent him from throwing the ball deep down field.
2. Dictate the passing game
The saving grace for Joe Flacco from an otherwise mediocre skill is his arm. Blessed with one of the strongest arms in football, Flacco excels throwing the ball deep down the field -- especially on the right side to Torrey Smith or Anquan Boldin. We all know that Bill Belichick always focuses on taking away the opponents best weapon. Look for the Devin McCourty to play way off the line of scrimmage and the Patriots defense to pressure Flacco and make his throw the ball either across his body or underneath. This will leave the Patriots front seven to stop Ray Rice, and if they can't the Pats will be forced to bring a safety into the box allowing Flacco to take his shots in one on one coverage downfield.
For the Ravens, their number one goal as a defense is going to be stopping Wes Welker. If they can contain Welker by doubling him or playing a shallow zone, Brady will be forced to rely on Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez to push the ball down field. While Lloyd burned the Ravens for 9 catches in the teams' first meeting this season, I am sure they would rather challenge him to do it again rather than being torched by Welker.
3. Special Teams
I know it sounds crazy that this is a top three key factor, but in a game that is sure be as close as this one, field position and special teams will play a huge role. Both teams struggled in kick coverage last week, with the Ravens giving up a Kick Return for a TD and the Punt Return for a TD, and the Patriots getting shredded by Danieal Manning for several long returns. The Patriots kick team needs to shred their initial blocks and get down field, something the Nate Ebner and Tracy White struggled with last week. While the Patriots return game has been absent this year, the Ravens Jacoby Jones has explosive speed and the ability to break off a game changing return.
Both teams have solid punters, with the Patriots having a slight advantage with Zoltan Mesko consistently winning the field position battle with booming, well aimed kicks.
The Ravens have a rookie kicker in Justin Tucker, who has been solid as can be this year. However, all Ravens fans and players, Tucker included, have the memory of Billy Cundiff's catastrophic gaffe from a year ago. It will be interesting to see how the rookie responds.
The Patriots Stephen Gostkowski has had his ups and downs this season, and does not seem to have the full confidence of head coach Bill Belichick.
In a windy environment, the kicking game will be huge today.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
NFL Championship -- Three Keys to Victory
San Francisco vs Atlanta
1. Home Dome field advantage
The Falcons have been difficult to beat in the Georgia Dome, going 8-1 this season. Remember that while Colin Kaepernick played like a veteran last weekend at Green Bay, the noise he will hear today will be yet another Welcome to the NFL test for the tattooed youngster. If the Falcons can start fast and surge off the energy of the crowd, they should be able to withstand the inevitable surge of the Niners.
2. Run to set up the pass
Both Frank Gore and Michael Turner have a lot of tread on their collective tires. Gore has looked like his younger self for most of the season. If he continues to eat up big chunks of yardage the Niners will be able to dictate the pace with long, physical drives. If not, Colin Kaepernick will be forced to sit in the pocked and throw the ball down the field which is exactly what Falcons head coach Mike Smith is looking for. On the other side of the ball, which Michael Turner will show up? There is no doubt he has lost a few steps, but he still has the size and strength to plod along for consistent short gains. The real X Factor is Jaquizz Rodgers -- if he can break several long runs like he last week, the Niners will have to bring a Safety into the box, opening up deep seam routes to Julio Jones and Roddy White.
3. Coaching
Falcons coach Mike Smith and Matt Ryan were bailed out last week by some head scratching defensive sets by Pete Carroll on the Falcons last minute game winning drive. They will receive no such soft coverages from aggressive minded Niners coach Jim Harbaugh. If the Falcons get the lead and go into their shell like they did last week, Matt Ryan will not win his second playoff game of his career. On the other side, the Niners should forget the success they had last week running the Pistol offensive against the Packers. While the Falcons defense may not be elite, they are much faster on the outside than the Packers. The Falcons lack any sort of pass rush and Harbaugh should have prepared his young QB to recognize blitz packages and read his keys to find open receivers. If Harbaugh is counting on another record setting rushing day from his QB, he will be watching the Super Bowl from home for the second year in a row.
1. Home Dome field advantage
The Falcons have been difficult to beat in the Georgia Dome, going 8-1 this season. Remember that while Colin Kaepernick played like a veteran last weekend at Green Bay, the noise he will hear today will be yet another Welcome to the NFL test for the tattooed youngster. If the Falcons can start fast and surge off the energy of the crowd, they should be able to withstand the inevitable surge of the Niners.
2. Run to set up the pass
Both Frank Gore and Michael Turner have a lot of tread on their collective tires. Gore has looked like his younger self for most of the season. If he continues to eat up big chunks of yardage the Niners will be able to dictate the pace with long, physical drives. If not, Colin Kaepernick will be forced to sit in the pocked and throw the ball down the field which is exactly what Falcons head coach Mike Smith is looking for. On the other side of the ball, which Michael Turner will show up? There is no doubt he has lost a few steps, but he still has the size and strength to plod along for consistent short gains. The real X Factor is Jaquizz Rodgers -- if he can break several long runs like he last week, the Niners will have to bring a Safety into the box, opening up deep seam routes to Julio Jones and Roddy White.
3. Coaching
Falcons coach Mike Smith and Matt Ryan were bailed out last week by some head scratching defensive sets by Pete Carroll on the Falcons last minute game winning drive. They will receive no such soft coverages from aggressive minded Niners coach Jim Harbaugh. If the Falcons get the lead and go into their shell like they did last week, Matt Ryan will not win his second playoff game of his career. On the other side, the Niners should forget the success they had last week running the Pistol offensive against the Packers. While the Falcons defense may not be elite, they are much faster on the outside than the Packers. The Falcons lack any sort of pass rush and Harbaugh should have prepared his young QB to recognize blitz packages and read his keys to find open receivers. If Harbaugh is counting on another record setting rushing day from his QB, he will be watching the Super Bowl from home for the second year in a row.
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