A Clear Signal

ATTENTION RED SOX NATION

John Henry, Larry Lucchino, and little Ben Cherington are sending out signals.  They want the rest of baseball, Red Sox fans, both diehards and pink hats alike to know something.  They are determined to be mediocre next year. That's right, you heard them. No last place finishes, no embarrassing nationally televised games in front of a largely empty Fenway Park. No sir. They will finish at least 4th.  How do they know you ask them?

Have you seen the news???

They are throwing around money at veteran free agents like it's December 2010.

But they learned their lesson. The want you to know that too. Instead of the 7 year mega deal they gave to speedy but aging right fielder Carl Crawford almost exactly two years ago, they only gave a 3 year deal to speedy but aging right fielder Shane Victorino.
They don't do long term deals anymore see?

And instead of the 7 year contract they gave power hitting first basemen Adrian Gonzalez in April of 2011, they have 3 years to power hitting first basemen Mike Napoli.

With the addition of "clubhouse guy" Jonny Gomes to a 2 year deal, it would appear at first glance that the Red Sox are priming for another run at a title.  It feels like the mid 2000's doesn't it?

After all, they've got their gritty, dirt dog right fielder in Victorino (Trot Nixon), their dead pull hitting, clubhouse jokester in Gomes (Kevin Millar anyone?) and they even tended the contract of insane, yet talented Alfredo Aceves (how can he not be compared to Ugueth Urbina?).

As vague as these comparisons may be, the direction of the Red Sox is finally clear -- they want to be as relevant as possible, keep fans interested, until they can either sell the team, or feasibly contend.

I wish it were different and I truly believe that they do too.  The last two years have been embarrassing, and the casting off of Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett showed that management has learned the error of their ways.  But as things stand now, they really are not shaping up to be a very awe-inspiring team.  Examine the following:

By signing Gomes and Victorino the Red Sox outfield seems to be complete.  Gomes will play left field and be spelled by Ryan Kalish (in retrospect who wishes we gave him up instead of Josh Reddick in the Andrew Bailey deal?), while Ellsbury will most likely play out the last year of his deal in center.  Ideally the Red Sox will be able to move Ellsbury at the trading deadline or will face the prospects of heavy competition from the Yankees to sign him to a extension next off-season (Curtis Granderson is aging fast).  The Victorino signing is a vast overpay at $39 million over 3 years.  He is a nice player but saw his OPS sag to a career worst .704 yet still received a per year raise of almost $4 million.  He provides above average defense, doubles power, and some speed (something the Red Sox rarely utilize).

The infield consists of holdovers Will Middlebrooks and Dustin Pedroia.  Middlebrooks, who should be hitting 3rd, in front of David Ortiz, should provide a nice power average combination.  Pedroia, who had a somewhat disappointing year, needs to prove that he is over his wrist injury that plagued him all last season.

Newcomer Napoli will play first, and while his fielding may be shaky at times, first base defense is the most overrated stat in baseball (I am looking at you Doug Mientkiewicz).  Napoli should hit very well at Fenway, and his swing has suited him well there in the past (19-for-62, 7 HR). His average should settle somewhere between his dismal .227 of last year and his incredibly fortunate .320 of 2011.  

Shortstop is an area of concern, as slick fielding Jose Iglesias does not seem to be the answer.  Anyone who is going to hit .210 with no power has no place on a major league roster, not matter how well he gloves it.  The Red Sox are rumored to be looking at trading for Yunel Escobar, he of the racial slur eyeblack,who would provide some power and an average glove to the position (Update: Escobar was traded to the Rays).  Either way, the Sox seem to be bridging the gap until Xander Bogaerts is ready to take over in two years.

At catcher the team now has a surplus after signing veteran Davis Ross.  Saltalamacchia or Lavarnway should be moved before the season starts, though I am not sure either will fetch big league talent.  

Rounding out the lineup is David Ortiz, who somehow managed to get a 2 year $26 million contract coming off a season when his strained achilles limited him to just 90 games.  If healthy, and that is a big if, he should continue to hit for power.  Just remember however, that this is a guy who is 37 (we think), has been caught using steriods, and now has a nagging injury.  This is not the steroid era, and guys with that description don't suddenly get better.

The pitching staff is a whole bundle of fun.  As starters go, Jon Lester has proven that he is not an Ace, and even reuniting with John Farrell is not going to change that.  Clay Bucholtz showed some glimpses of putting his immense talent to good use last year, but still seems to have focus issues with men on base.  

Beyond the top two, the picture gets a bit cloudy.  Felix Doubront seems to have real potential as a front of the rotation power arm, and it is up to Farrell to get him to take that next step.  Franklin Morales is apparently going to work in the spring as a starter, and while he performed admirably last season in that role, he has never pitched more than 76 innings in his career.  John Lackey will supposedly be ready to start the season, but the only thing he has proven in his time with the  team is that frogs and people really aren't that different. 

Who fills out the back end of the rotation is anyone's guess. They could sign Ryan Dempster or Kyle Lohse or go with Junichi Tazawa or Alfredo Aceves.  Their minor league pitching depth is very thin, with the exception of Matt Barnes who seems to be at least a year away.  

The bullpen is even murkier.  Last year they traded for Mark Melancon and Andrew Bailey, only to see them completely flop.  Craig Breslow is a nice lefty in the pen and should be heavily sought after at the trade deadline.  Other than those three they have Aceves, Bard, and Andrew Miller.  Of that trio, I see no sure thing.  Aceves is bat shit crazy, Bard spent last year impersonating Ricky Vaughn, and Miller finally had a solid year after a career of failed promise.  

This is the area of the team that appears to need to most help.  They missed out on low-risk high- reward option Joakim Soria, who was snagged by the Rangers, and may target a big name like Mike Adams or Jason Grilli.  However, chances are the team will be reluctant to give a reliever more than a 2 year deal (can't say I blame them).  Even if they do sign a reliever or trade for one, having Bailey and Aceves at the back end provide huge question marks entering the season.

All in all, the Red Sox seem be shaping up as a team that will score plenty of runs, have a unstable and inconsistent starting rotation, and an unpredictable bullpen. Sound familiar?

Yes, the $120 million John , Larry, and Ben spent on Ortiz, Ross, Gomes, Napoli, and Victorino sent a clear signal.

It reads: keep buying tickets, and wait till next year(s).